Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act Targets Congressional Bets on Kalshi and Polymarket

Republican Rep. Bryan Steil has introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, a bill that would bar House members, their spouses and their children from wagering on political and policy outcomes via prediction markets. The measure targets platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can bet real money on policy outcomes, elections and government actions.

Under the legislation, violators face a penalty of at least $2,000 or 10% of the trade’s value, whichever is higher, and must forfeit any net profits. Lawmakers are prohibited from using office funds or campaign money to pay penalties. The ban is narrow, covering bets on political and policy events that come to a lawmaker’s attention through their service, while still allowing wagers on unrelated events like sports.

The bill has gained notable bipartisan support, with House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump backing it. It mirrors a Senate rule passed earlier in 2025 that bars senators and staff from prediction market bets. Rep. Steil, chairman of the Committee on House Administration, said the measure is a basic ethics guardrail, noting that it is inappropriate for members of Congress to trade on election or policy outcomes.

The proposal comes amid mounting scrutiny of prediction markets. The House Oversight Committee recently launched a probe into Polymarket and Kalshi over insider-trading safeguards, with Rep. James Comer calling the sector a ‘wild west’ with no rules. Additionally, Kalshi is suing Minnesota to block the first US felony ban on prediction markets, arguing contracts are federally regulated derivatives under exclusive CFTC oversight.

The sector has grown explosively, with Polymarket and Kalshi together clearing a $25.7 billion month in April. The concern driving the bill is that lawmakers routinely possess nonpublic information about legislation and policy shifts, creating an obvious temptation to trade akin to insider trading in equities, which is already illegal for lawmakers under separate rules.

By carving out sports and unrelated events, the bill seeks to restrict bets most prone to abuse without banning prediction markets outright. The measure faces a lengthy journey through committee and a floor vote, though early support from the speaker and president gives it momentum.

Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/steil-bill-ban-congress-prediction-markets-2026/