Anthropic Pre-IPO Futures Crash After Coinbase Debut

Coinbase launched the ANTHROPIC/USDC pre-IPO perpetual futures contract on June 22, but the so-called ‘Coinbase listing effect’ failed to materialize as the contract dropped 7.2% from its opening price of $1,728 to $1,628 at the time of writing. The Binance ANTHROPIC/USDT contract also declined 5% to $1,630 between June 22 and June 23, touching an all-time low of $1,545 on June 23.

The drop comes despite Anthropic partnering with Micron Technology, suggesting that retail traders are pricing in short-term risks rather than long-term growth. The volatility surged, with the Coinbase contract swinging from a high of $1,769 to a low of $1,560 on June 23.

Analysts attribute the crash to comparisons with SpaceX pre-IPO perpetuals, which traded at $155 before listing on NASDAQ—15% higher than the actual IPO price of $135, causing losses for late buyers. Additionally, Binance and Coinbase are not pricing the futures based on the number of shares floated at the IPO, as Anthropic has not disclosed this in its S-1 statement. Coinbase has warned that the final IPO price could be 25% higher or lower than the pre-IPO perpetual price.

Key technical levels to watch include support at $1,545 and resistance at $1,700. The contract is currently trading above the 78.6% Fibonacci level of $1,631. The RSI at 44 suggests bearish influence but is recovering from an oversold level of 19, indicating sellers may be losing control. The rising ADX line supports the recent uptrend from $1,545 to $1,670, and a continuation could push the contract toward the psychological resistance of $1,700.

Source: https://coingape.com/markets/anthropic-pre-ipo-futures-crash-after-coinbase-debut/