Meta Bets on Prediction Markets as It Hunts for Next-Growth Engine

Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, is reportedly developing a standalone prediction markets app called Arena. According to the New York Times, the app would allow users to place bets on real-world outcomes using a points-based system rather than real money, at least initially. Arena is separate from Meta’s existing social platforms, and the company plans to leverage its large user base to drive adoption.

This is not Meta’s first foray into prediction markets. In 2020, the company launched Forecast, a similar points-based prediction app that was shut down in 2022. However, the timing may be different now, as the prediction market sector has exploded. In 2025, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket combined for $51 billion in trades, and the figure has already reached $130 billion in 2026.

Kalshi recently completed a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation, while Polymarket is reportedly in talks for a $400 million raise at a $15 billion valuation. Bernstein projects that total prediction market volumes could hit $1 trillion annually by 2030.

Meta is entering a crowded field. Binance added prediction market functionality to its wallet in March, and Hyperliquid launched macro prediction markets the following month. Coinbase and Crypto.com also have prediction market products, and Trump Media has announced plans for similar offerings.

However, the sector has faced regulatory scrutiny. Federal prosecutors charged a US Special Forces soldier with using classified information to place bets on Polymarket, netting him $400,000. Additionally, blockchain investigator ZachXBT warned about data quality and trading behavior on Rain Protocol, a prediction market project valued at nearly $9 billion.

Meta sees Arena as a testbed for new product ideas, as its core platforms have shifted heavily toward video, leaving less room for experimentation. The company has also developed other standalone apps, including Meta Photos, which uses AI to generate media.

If successful, Arena could become a significant revenue driver for Meta, though the path to monetization remains unclear without real-money wagering at launch.

Source: https://cryptopotato.com/meta-bets-on-prediction-markets-as-it-hunts-for-next-growth-engine-report/