Zuckerberg Eyed Kalshi Buyout Before Developing Meta's Own Prediction App

Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg approached prediction-market leader Kalshi about a takeover before ordering his own team to build a competing app, according to a new report.

Zuckerberg met Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour about a buyout in 2025, but talks stalled and never reached a formal offer. The discussions, reported by NPR on Monday, failed to advance due to either Mansour’s unwillingness to sell or Meta’s concerns over legal and regulatory issues surrounding Kalshi.

Instead of abandoning the sector, Zuckerberg directed staff to build Arena, a standalone app that uses play money for predictions on news events and trending topics. Meta’s AI systems will generate questions and settle outcomes, avoiding the real-money gambling classification that has dogged Kalshi and Polymarket. This approach also removes the profit motive for users.

Real-money prediction markets have faced numerous legal challenges in the U.S. and hostile regulation in Europe. Minnesota made it a felony for such platforms to operate, and the U.S. Justice Department has opened two insider-trading cases tied to Polymarket—one involving a special-forces soldier accused of trading on classified information about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and another a Google employee accused of using confidential search-trend data. By using play money, Meta aims to sidestep these classification fights.

Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round in May led by Coatue, with Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and Paradigm participating, at a $22 billion valuation—doubling from five months earlier. The company reported annualized revenue over $1.5 billion and an 800% rise in institutional trading over six months. Rival Polymarket was valued at $10.7 billion.

Prediction-market volumes have fluctuated through 2026, with April recording about $8.6 billion in taker volume and $29.8 billion in notional terms, with Kalshi overtaking Polymarket for the monthly lead, according to Dune Analytics. Monthly figures peaked near $25.7 billion in March, and total 2025 industry volume topped $63 billion.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) argued at trial last year that Meta runs a “buy or bury” strategy, either acquiring young rivals or cloning them to squeeze them out. A judge sided with Zuckerberg’s company, finding it broke no competition law in acquiring Instagram and WhatsApp; the FTC is appealing. Meta also struck a partnership with Kalshi in March, allowing its markets to integrate with the Threads app. Now, it seems the calculus moved from “buy” to “bury.”

Neither Meta nor Kalshi commented on the talks.

Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/zuckerberg-eyed-kalshi-buyout-before-developing-metas-own-prediction-app/