World Cup Fever Fuels $5.6B Explosion in Prediction Markets

The FIFA World Cup’s round of 16 matches are set to kick off on July 4, and football (soccer) has become the biggest driver of activity on prediction platforms, diverting attention from the political and macroeconomic markets they were originally built around. According to data from research firm CryptoRank, the tournament has pushed prediction market volumes from just $65 million on June 1 to a monthly peak of $5.6 billion on June 22. Throughout June, total trading volume across major prediction venues rose rapidly, from $65 million on June 1 to $340 million on June 8, a few days before the World Cup started. By June 15, volume jumped to $2.2 billion after 15 matches, including the USA’s 4-1 win over Paraguay. On June 22, after 42 games, volume hit $5.6 billion, before a slight reduction to $5.4 billion on June 29. Kalshi accounted for much of this activity, with open interest standing at $1.84 billion, of which $1.45 billion was on Kalshi and $390 million on Polymarket. BitMart reported similar trends, with its monthly prediction market volumes skyrocketing 1,500% from May after the World Cup started. Active users increased 4.6 times, and completed orders went up nearly 9 times. Nearly 44% of newly registered users placed their first trade through its prediction markets, with football markets being the main attraction. Polymarket, however, saw a more subdued performance amid criticism. A Wall Street Journal investigation alleged the platform used staged winning bets in promotional videos. There was also a dispute where a user accused Polymarket of changing rules on a market tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin sale. Despite these issues, prediction market volumes are booming, with projections of $10 billion in global trading volume.

Source: https://cryptopotato.com/world-cup-fever-fuels-5-6b-explosion-in-prediction-markets/