Gibraltar Launches World's First Dedicated Prediction-Market Regulatory Regime
Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction to enact a purpose-built regulatory framework for prediction markets, carving the fast-growing sector out of its general gambling law. The move sets the British Overseas Territory sharply apart from mainland Europe, where regulators are moving to restrict these platforms.
The Prediction Market Regulations 2026 took effect July 13, exempting prediction-market operators from certain provisions of the territory’s Gambling Act 2025 and placing them under a tailored set of rules. The framework takes an “activity-based and risk-based approach.” Under the rules, every event contract must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority, and each must be “clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation, and consistent with the regulatory objectives.” An independent supervisory panel will oversee the framework, and operators must maintain their own systems to prevent market abuse.
Two operators, ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire’s Wire Markets, will be regulated under the new Gibraltar regime. ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction-market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, built on the ADI Chain blockchain, was already licensed in Gibraltar as a betting intermediary on March 26 under previous law. Wire Markets, the platform of California-based WagerWire, was approved in principle in June and is targeting a launch around the start of the international club football season in August.
Gibraltar already derives roughly a quarter of its GDP from gambling-associated services. With the United Kingdom raising its Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, diversifying into prediction markets is a way to offset pressure on operators hosted by the territory. Regulated prediction-market trading volume continues to climb steeply, with combined monthly volume across leading platforms reaching $44.8 billion in June.