CLARITY Act Odds Crash to 31% After Trump Push Fails to Break Senate Deadlock
Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign had a strong focus on the cryptocurrency industry, promising favorable regulatory frameworks. The CLARITY Act, a long-awaited crypto market-structure bill, has reached a decisive stage after passing the Senate Banking Committee, and Trump held a major meeting. However, odds on prediction markets have dropped sharply.
A year ago, the House of Representatives passed its version of the CLARITY Act with a bipartisan vote of 294-134. In May, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill, with two Democratic senators joining all Republicans. The proposed framework gives the CFTC clearer jurisdiction over spot markets for assets classified as commodities, while the SEC retains authority over securities. The bill is now on the Senate legislative calendar as №423, making it eligible for full Senate consideration. However, major legislation requires at least 60 votes, meaning broader support is needed.
Democrats have pushed for stronger restrictions preventing senior government officials from profiting from crypto businesses. Many Democratic lawmakers demand language that would restrict elected or senior officials from owning, issuing, or benefiting financially from certain crypto ventures. Additionally, banks argue that crypto platforms should not be allowed to offer interest-like payments or rewards on stablecoin balances, fearing such features could drive deposits away from traditional lenders.
White House meetings earlier this year failed to resolve these disputes, and Trump’s latest meeting also could not reach equilibrium. The next step requires Senate leaders to agree to bring the bill to the floor, but negotiators must first secure enough Democratic commitments to overcome the 60-vote threshold. Another hurdle is that two governing bodies—the Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee—oversee the SEC and CFTC, respectively. Both committees must reconcile their versions into a single Senate package before a vote.
Although it is still theoretically possible for the bill to pass in 2026, odds are rapidly dropping. Supporters want the Senate to act before its August recess, but the November midterm elections cast a shadow, as control of Congress may shift. The odds stood at around 40% earlier this week and above 70% after the May advancement, but have fallen to approximately 31% on most prediction markets after the latest struggles. Washington analysts believe the real chances are even lower.