Bitcoin Rebounds Before Fed Bombshell as Traders Brace for 30% Hike Odds
Bitcoin traded near $64,400 on Wednesday morning, up roughly 1.6% over the previous 24 hours as positioning accelerated ahead of the Federal Reserve’s afternoon rate decision. The move higher came after bitcoin briefly slipped below $63,000 in the prior session before buyers consistently defended that area. Once price reclaimed $64,000, momentum slowed instead of accelerating, a sign that traders were willing to buy the dip but remained reluctant to chase strength before a major macro event.
Market data shows bitcoin trading in the mid-$64,000 range with daily volume between $24 billion and $25 billion. Market capitalization remains near $1.29 trillion with approximately 20.06 million BTC in circulation. The recovery only retraced part of July’s decline. Bitcoin spent the first half of the month testing the $66,000 to $67,000 area before sellers gradually took control, pushing the price toward the upper $63,000s. Even after the rebound, bitcoin remains roughly 45% to 49% below its October 2025 record just above $126,000.
Markets often become less responsive to technical signals in the hours before a Federal Reserve decision. Wednesday’s FOMC statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference represent the type of event that routinely overrides chart patterns. Consensus still favors the Fed holding its benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, although futures and prediction markets have continued assigning meaningful odds to another increase. Sticky inflation readings and elevated energy prices have kept that possibility alive.
Treasury yields also remain part of the equation. With 10-year yields holding in the mid-to-high 4% range and real yields elevated, capital has continued flowing toward interest-bearing assets. That backdrop has repeatedly limited bitcoin rallies throughout the summer.
The daily chart reflects a market waiting for a catalyst. Oscillators and the moving average summary remain neutral, with the 14-day relative strength index near 51. Shorter-term exponential moving averages have started turning higher, but the longer-term trend has yet to confirm the recovery, with both the 100-day and 200-day averages acting as overhead resistance. Buyers have repeatedly defended the $62,500 to $63,300 region, while resistance between $64,500 and $65,000 has consistently attracted profit-taking. The broader $66,800 to $67,000 zone remains the larger technical hurdle.
Network fundamentals continue sending a different message than price. Hashrate remains just below 900 EH/s, indicating miners have largely maintained operations. Transaction counts remain relatively high, but much of that activity comes from smaller OP_RETURN-related transactions instead of larger value transfers. Active addresses have drifted toward 600,000 on a 30-day average, reflecting reduced participation.
Institutional flows have echoed that hesitation. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted inflows earlier in July before reversing course, with recent sessions posting outflows ranging from roughly $11 million to $50 million. That pattern suggests institutions are waiting for greater clarity on interest rates.
Derivatives positioning also shows traders becoming more selective. Cryptoquant statistics estimated perpetual futures open interest near $65 billion around July 28, down roughly 20% from last September’s peak. Liquidity remains concentrated: Binance, Bybit and Gate account for roughly 63% of perpetual open interest, with Binance alone representing about 35% of the market.
Once the Fed decision passes, attention will shift to Thursday’s GDP and PCE inflation reports. Earnings from Coinbase and Strategy will add another layer of information. The immediate reaction will likely depend on Chair Warsh’s guidance. If markets interpret his comments as leaving room for easier policy, bitcoin has room to challenge the $65,000 area. If the tone shifts more hawkish, support around $62,500 becomes the first level to watch.